A US peace with the Taliban? Don't hold your breath

Friday 11 January 2013

Kabul, Jan 11: A large crystal chandelier cast a weak glow over U.S. special envoy Marc Grossman and Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Jawed Ludin as they talked up the results of the envoys' two days of meetings with President Hamid Karzai on the question of peace talks with the Taliban.

But the plaster near the ceiling of the Soviet-era ceremonial hall at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was warped and discolored from a leaky roof, and a newly installed heater hummed loudly in the background. Minutes after the press conference ended, the power cut out, leaving Afghan officials — and the media — in the dark, an eloquent commentary on the peace process itself: the trappings are there, but closer inspection reveals obvious flaws.

The main reason for Grossman's visit appears to have been to reassure Karzai and his government that they will play a key part in any peace process between the U.S. and the Taliban. But the most striking evidence that the main gears of the peace machine are out of sync came when the U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan said that on his way to Kabul, he had had "the good fortune to visit Turkey, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and India" and that he had "found strong support for peace in Afghanistan." That statement was notable not for the countries mentioned, but for the key omission: Pakistan.

Last week, a spokesman for Pakistan's government said, "Ambassador Grossman asked to visit Pakistan, but we conveyed to him that it was not possible at the moment." Islamabad said it first had to complete a parliamentary review of the troubled bilateral relationship with Washington. Acknowledging the importance of Pakistan and perhaps signaling an effort to reduce tensions between the two countries, Grossman said that, "There really can't be a comprehensive peace process unless Pakistan is part of it," adding in a conciliatory tone and with a smile, "I would be happy to meet them at any time or any place."

And while the opening of a Taliban office in Doha has prompted some to talk of a peace process gaining momentum, Karzai's government last month withdrew its ambassador to Qatar because Kabul felt it was being cut out of the loop in talks between the emirate and the Taliban. Asked about the significance of the Taliban office in Qatar, Grossman answered that "nothing has been concluded" and "more work needs to be done."

The U.S. envoy urged that "Qatar and Afghanistan need to be in direct contact with one another," and commended Karzai's government for welcoming a Qatari delegation to Afghanistan. Yet, right now, there is no Afghan ambassador in Doha or Qatari embassy in Kabul, and the two sides appear to talk past one another. Still, even if a Taliban office in Doha would establish the credentials of interlocutors who claim to speak for the movement's leadership, and even if Washington was able to get on the same page as both Pakistan and the Karzai government, Grossman emphasized repeatedly during the press conference that the Taliban have not yet committed to peace talks.

Grossman emphasized that "we also need to have a clear statement by the Afghan Taliban against international terrorism and in support of the peace process to end the armed conflict in Afghanistan."

So, just as a vast gap remains between the objectives of the Taliban and those of the U.S., there are also gaps between the U.S. and Afghanistan. While Deputy Foreign Minister Ludin said his government would support the transfer of Taliban prisoners from Guantánamo Bay to Qatar — which has been mooted as an important opening gesture by the U.S. to launch a peace process — Grossman said, "This is an issue in the United States of law, something on which we would want to consult our Congress," adding that "for our side, no decisions have been made." And given the nest of issues that remains to be untangled before any significant progress becomes possible, talk of a peace process at this stage remains somewhat hypothetical.

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Afghan Olive farms waiting for water

Kabul, Jan 11: The southeastern Afghan province of Nangarhar was once home to thousands of hectares of olive groves, but residents say water and electricity shortages, combined with land-grabs and war, have left the industry devastated.

State-run farms here once produced 8,000 tons of olives in a season, but in the decade since the fall of the Taleban, labourers have harvested a total of just 1,400 tons. Last year, the harvest was little over half a ton.

The olive industry grew up around the 1960s Nangarhar Canal, which was intended as a huge income generator for eastern Afghanistan. In its heyday, the 70-kilometres waterway provided the irrigation that enabled local producers to export their olives and fruit.

Today, however, officials say the canal system and the surrounding agriculture have been undermined by the dilapidated state of the Darunta hydroelectric dam, built in 1964 on the Kabul river.

The canal needs electricity to pump water along it, and its managers say they get far less than the amount they are supposed to get – 65 per cent of the power generated by the dam.

“Believe me, we hardly get five hours of electricity a week,” said Ziyarat-Gul Rahel, director of the Nangarhar Canal Project.

Mohammad Shoja, deputy director of Nangarhar’s energy department, said the reason the Darunta power station could not supply enough electricity to the canal was that there was not enough water dammed up to keep it fully operational. Only one of the dam’s three turbines was currently working, he said.

“We’re faced with a lack of water,” he said. “The problem is that the canal department is asking for both water and electricity at the same time – and we can’t satisfy both demands simultaneously.”

The United States Agency for International Development said last year that it was refurbishing and modernising the dam, where the turbine-driven generators were in poor condition and at risk of failing. It said it planned to finish the repair work by mid-2012.

But as Hezatullah, head of the Nangarhar Olive Factory, pointed out, the industry has declined not just because of water shortages, but also as a result of years of war and poor maintenance of farms.

There used to be 700,000 olive trees in the province, which borders on Pakistan, but three-quarters of theme were destroyed by decades of war starting with the Soviet invasion of 1979, he said. The farms once employed 12,000 workers, but now ran on a skeleton staff of 800.

“There isn’t enough water to irrigate the olive trees, nor are there enough people to maintain the farms – not to mention a host of other problems,” Hezatollah said. “The canal was a significant undertaking for this eastern region, so the government should revive this now dilapidated project.”

One major obstacle to recovery is that state-owned farmlands have been seized and the trees chopped down.

Rahel said that of the 14,000 hectares once held by the Nangarhar Canal Project, only 1,100 hectares remained. “The rest has been taken illegally,” he said.

Local resident Naqib Ahmad recalled his father working on the olive farms, but he said that after the Taleban government was ousted in 2001, opportunists rushed in to grab government-owned land and cut down the olive trees.

As a result, Nangarhar residents find it harder and harder to buy locally-pressed olive oil.

Mohibullah said he went shopping for olive oil to treat pains in his grandfather’s feet, but was only able to find inferior Iranian and Pakistani products at the local markets. He went to the olive factory, but was turned away at the gates.

“The staff there are just standing around in the sun,” he complained. “The plant hasn’t functioned for several years; its an olive factory in name only.”

Faced with such customers, local shopkeeper Ziaurrahman Arab said that he sometimes lies and tells people the products they are buying are not foreign but Afghan.

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The Swede who convinced Taliban to allow girls schools

Kabul, Jan 11 : These days Anders Fange, 65, lectures on Afghanistan in his native Sweden.

His main challenge is to convince skeptical audiences to shed preconceptions when they think about Afghanistan. He hones this point by drawing on nearly three decades of experience in that mountainous country.

Fange's public speaking engagements and private conversations are deeply engaging owing to his detailed knowledge of Afghanistan. Anecdotes from his long years there are more than a match for the dry academic comparisons that frequently dominate such events in the West.

Fange first went to Afghanistan as a young radio journalist in the early 1980s after Afghans began fighting against the Soviet occupation. He later moved to humanitarian relief work and even worked for the United Nations political mission in the country.

"Afghanistan always continues to surprise you. You always get new explanations for things," Fange says. "It's a complicated country in many ways -- that makes it difficult and it makes it exciting."

In 1984, Fange spent three months walking with the mujahedin through valleys, passes, and forests. They often stayed in village mosques. He witnessed their attacks against Soviet convoys and government garrisons.

"From those years, I took with me the thing that I have been saying since then: that the future of Afghanistan is not decided in Kabul," he says. "It is decided out in the valleys. It is decided in the rural areas."

He was fascinated by the Afghan culture -- in particular, the practice of hospitality. "It's most impolite to leave a guest alone. From my upbringing in Sweden, I was used to [having] my own room. But there, you could never be alone," he says of the days he spent in remote Afghan villages.

In the early 1990s, Fange joined the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan (SCA) and began living in Peshawar in western Pakistan.

In his role as an aid worker, he experienced Afghan suffering first-hand. But he was impressed by Afghan resilience.

"Their capacity for work, their capacity for being able to carrying through in very difficult circumstances -- I doubt that there is any other people on earth who had this kind of capacity," he says.

The Swedish Committee for Afghanistan became one of the largest aid groups at the height of Afghan civil war, when the Taliban militia swept through much of the country. Fange dealt with many Taliban officials.

"Most of the Taliban, even the ministers we dealt with in Kabul, had a pretty pragmatic view," he says. "Somehow it was understood that they needed this humanitarian assistance of which we were one of the providers."

One of the most sensitive issues he negotiated with the Taliban was rural schools where some 40,000 Afghan girls were educated. After long talks with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the regime's minister of education, the Taliban agreed to sign a protocol allowing the Swedish Committee for Afghanistan to work in the country.

"When we finalized these negotiations, he told me, 'We know you have these girls' schools. We know it, but don't tell us,' he said,'" Fange says as he recalls the conversation. "In other words, it was a very Afghan view that if it's not official, then a lot more is tolerated and allowed than what's in official life."

The schools, however, were not immune to Taliban interference. In the summer of 2001, Fange says, some local mullahs in remote rural districts attempted to close down a school. His answer to such a menace was to threaten the closure of all Swedish Committee for Afghanistan education, health care, and agriculture projects in the area.

"Without exception, they came back the day after or even the same day and said, 'OK, you can stick to the girls schools, but keep a low profile,'" he recalls of the often tricky negotiations with rural clerics. "During Taliban [rule] we never were actually forced really to close girls schools."

After 9/11, Fange became a leading member or the UN political mission in Afghanistan. But he was soon disappointed at what he regarded as political blunders made by Afghan leaders and the international community in rebuilding the country, including disenfranchising certain segments of the population while reenergizing and empowering some of the most notorious warlords.

"The West is obsessed with its own political system as a perfect political system," he says, adding that Western states have struggled for centuries to improve their democracies. "Then we throw it on Afghanistan and say, 'You have 10 years to fix this,'" he says. "Of course it doesn't work."

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Tallest building in the world turns into giant fireworks show

Dubai, Jan 11 (Newswire): The Burj Khalifa, the soaring 2,716-foot tower in Dubai, started the new year in a massive sound and light show that turned the entire high-rise into a giant fireworks display.

A video, which captured the attention of the Web, shows an eye-popping performance that was accompanied by the Prague Philharmonic Orchestra playing live on the Burj Steps. Fireworks, which were also set off elsewhere around Dubai, appear around and on top of the skyscraper.

The tower has already had its Hollywood moment for a supporting role in the movie Mission: Impossible — Ghost Protocol. That's the building Tom Cruise scales from the outside.

Even if you couldn’t afford a $4,300 window-side table at the restaurant on the 122nd floor, aptly named Atmosphere, to catch the show up close, there was plenty to take in from the ground. Close to a million onlookers watched from the street what organizers called “arguably the best display on the planet."

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Watch Night marks 150th anniversary of Lincoln's proclamation

Charleston, Jan 11: Congregants at Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church cried out in testimony, prayer and song at a New Year's Eve service recalling the vigils held by blacks 150 years ago as they awaited President Abraham Lincoln's signing of the Emancipation Proclamation.

The document that helped end slavery in the United States resonated deeply in Charleston, where thousands of enslaved Africans arrived in America from the late 17th century to the early 19th century. The first shots of the Civil War also were fired in Charleston in 1861.

"It's not just an African-American celebration, it's an American celebration, akin to the Fourth of July," Reverend Clementa Pinckney said to 100 congregants at the two-hour service, known as Watch Night. "It's freedom come full circle."

As he read aloud excerpts from the proclamation, he told the congregation, "We stand on the shoulders of abolitionists and missionaries."

The lights inside the 194-year-old church were turned off shortly before midnight. In the dark, a succession of singers in a minute-by-minute countdown to the new year called, "Watchman, watchman, please tell me the hour of the night."

The minister's response pierced the darkness. "It is three minutes to midnight," then "It is two minutes to the new year," then "Last chance to pray in 2012." Finally, "It is now the new year. Freedom has come."

Watch Night, a historical New Year's Eve tradition of reflection and prayer in some American Protestant churches, became a tradition in African-American churches starting in 1862.

That night, on "Freedom's Eve," black churches and abolitionist communities waited for what 19th-century abolitionist leader Frederick Douglass wrote was "the glorious morning of liberty about to dawn upon us."

The proclamation, which Lincoln issued on January 1, 1863, in the middle of the Civil War, formally declared free millions of slaves in rebellious states that had left the United States and were not occupied by federal troops. It also allowed black men who had been enslaved to join the Union Army and Navy.

Though slavery was not fully abolished until the 13th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution was ratified in 1865, Watch Night was "a celebration of what freedom might mean," said Dawn Chitty, education director of the African American Civil War Museum in Washington, D.C., which focuses on the history and contributions of the United States Colored Troops.

"It wasn't just about being free to walk away from chains and shackles and forced labor, but about having a chance to fight for a country that didn't uphold any rights that you had at the time," she said.

Historians and scholars agree that slaves in the South were aware of the coming proclamation, which had been published months before it was signed.

"Groups of people gathered together with song, prayer, programs, whatever they could do, to recognize what was coming at midnight," Chitty said.

A few years later in 1868, Charleston blacks began holding an annual Emancipation Day parade, a tradition that they planned to repeat with floats, marching bands and community organizations taking part.

The parade was among a number of events being held across the country to mark the 150th anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation. A three-day display of the fragile original document was due to end at the National Archives in Washington.

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Analysis: Young, urban Indians find political voice after student's gang rape

New Delhi, Jan 11 : When Preeti Joshi heard of the gang rape of a fellow student, she joined a movement of thousands of outraged young Indians who have taken to the streets of New Delhi almost every day protesting for justice and security for women.

Beaten and raped by five men and a teenager on a moving bus in the capital on December 16, the 23-year-old student died from her injuries, her plight shaking the conscience of many urban middle class Indians who consider gender rights as important as poverty alleviation.

India's politicians, seen as out of touch with the aspirations of the urban middle class, have been caught off guard by the protests. For the first time, they head into national elections due by May 2014 with women's rights as an issue.

Even so, the issue is unlikely to be the defining one.

Massive rural vote banks have been untouched by demands for gender equality and the fury across India's cities may fade, just as unprecedented protests in New Delhi over corruption did 16 months ago.

"Rural populations in this country are more concerned about basics such as development," said Ranjana Kumari, director of the Centre for Social Research, a Delhi-based gender rights think-tank.

This jars with what urban protesters like Joshi want.

"I thought we lived in the world's biggest democracy where our voices counted and meant something. Politicians need to see that we need more than bijli, sadak, paani (power, roads, water)," said Joshi, 21, a student of social sciences at Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.

Sexual violence against women in largely patriarchal India is widespread, say gender rights activists, and crimes such as rape, dowry murders, acid attacks, honor killings, child marriages and human trafficking are common.

But the savagery of this crime - where the victim was raped for an hour and tortured with an iron rod which did serious damage to her internal organs - has stirred national debate and put gender issues on the political agenda.

The victim's name has not been released. Her alleged attackers have been detained in connection with the crime and police are likely to press murder charges this week. Prosecutors are expected to seek a death sentence for the adults.

"The girl's assault and death were the lancing of wounds that have festered for years. Women had shut up for fear of social pressures but now there's a collective voice to demand change," says Renuka Chowdhury, a parliamentarian and spokeswoman for the main ruling Congress Party and former minister for women and child development.

"This is for the first time, perhaps, that politicians are seeing women as a constituency. People will slowly learn to accept that a woman's vote will matter in times to come."

The government's initial response to the attack drew criticism.

It angered protesters by trying to throttle the largely peaceful demonstrations by imposing emergency policing laws, barricading roads and closing down underground train stations.

And it was a week before Prime Minister Manmohan Singh made a statement, in which he appealed for calm and promised to create a safer environment for women.

"We will examine without delay not only the responses to this terrible crime but also all aspects concerning the safety of women and children and punishment to those who commit these monstrous crimes," Singh said in a rare televised address to the nation on December 24.

One senior government official who did not want to be identified said Singh had been waiting for the home minister and the Delhi authorities to deal with the issue first.

Many protesters have also expressed disappointment at the low profile of younger politicians such as Rahul Gandhi, seen as the Congress Party's prime ministerial candidate in the 2014 elections and who could have helped bridge the gap between the demonstrators and the political establishment.

His first comment, extending sympathy to the victim's family and urging respect for women, came after the student had died.

Analysts said the slow and bumbling response from the elite illustrated how India's politicians are out of touch with the demands of the country's urban youth.

"Whatever the trigger, one thing is absolutely clear: India's political class has been left bewildered by the street protests involving large numbers of mostly apolitical and leaderless individuals," wrote political pundit Swapan Dasgupta in the Times of India.

But gender rights are unlikely to make a significant dent in India's elections. Similar street protests in August 2011 over corruption fizzled due to the inability of organizers to maintain public pressure and keep the media interested.

Despite gender sensitive laws being in place for decades, including those outlawing practices such as dowries and child marriage, they have been poorly implemented largely due to a lack of political will, activists say.

Many of India's legislators are elderly men who rely on the support of the rural masses, where deep-rooted patriarchal attitudes mean blame is often first assigned to the victims of sex attacks.

One of the most powerful female figures in Indian history is former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Her daughter-in-law, Sonia Gandhi, mother of Rahul, heads the Congress Party and there are also more than one million female politicians in village councils.

Yet only 11 percent of seats in India's lower and upper houses of parliament are held by women, ranking it 110th out of 145 countries, below less developed nations such as Niger and Pakistan, says the Inter-Parliamentary Union, a Geneva-based union of national parliaments.

For almost 18 years, moves to give women greater power at the national and state level through the Women's Reservation Bill, which would guarantee 33 percent of seats to women at those levels, have been blocked by male legislators.

"Political parties give tickets for fighting elections on the basis of electoral calculations. How many women are there in Indian politics who can get elected time after time? Very few, right?" said Nirmala Sitharaman, spokeswoman for the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party.

Gender rights activists also point out that political parties have allowed male legislators who themselves face rape charges and other crimes against women to represent them.

Six serving state legislators have been charged with rape, while 36 others including two national parliamentarians have faced charges of sexual harassment, molestation or assault on a woman before holding an assembly seat, according to the Association for Democratic Reforms, a Delhi-based think-tank.

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Woman stumbles, falls on NYC subway tracks, dies

New York, Jan 11  : New York City police say a young woman stumbling around on a Manhattan subway platform not far from Times Square fell onto the tracks and was killed by a train.

The accident happened at around 5 a.m. on New Year's Day at the No. 2 line station on 34th Street and Seventh Avenue. That's one stop from where revelers gather in Times Square to see the ball drop.

Police say the victim was in her 20s. Her name wasn't immediately released.

Subway deaths are common in the city. Last year, according to a report in the Daily News, there was about a fatality a week.

But track deaths have been getting extra scrutiny in recent weeks after two men were shoved to their deaths in December.


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LA photographer killed while shooting Bieber's car

Los Angeles, Jan 11 : Police say a paparazzo was hit by a car and killed after taking photos of Justin Bieber's white Ferrari on a Los Angeles street.

Los Angeles police Officer James Stoughton says the photographer, who was not identified, died at a hospital shortly after the crash. Stoughton says Bieber was not in the Ferrari at the time.

The sports car was parked on the side of Sepulveda Boulevard near Getty Center Drive after a traffic stop. The photographer was struck as he walked across the boulevard after taking pictures.

Stoughton says no charges are expected to be filed against the motorist who hit the man.

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Pop star Rain in trouble over paparazzi photos

Seoul, Jan 11: South Korean pop star Rain is facing questions after paparazzi photos showed him out on the town with a top actress.

Seoul's Defense Ministry said it is investigating whether Rain broke military rules by meeting actress Kim Tae-hee while on duty.

Rain is fulfilling his compulsory army service as an entertainer for the military. He is not allowed to have private meetings while outside his Seoul base for official duties such as recording and performing.

The ministry says a brief lockup in a military jail cannot be ruled out as a penalty.

Kim's agency admits that the two have dated for a month. Rain's agency neither denies nor confirms it.

Rain joined the military in October 2011 and is scheduled to be discharged in July.


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Retailers' run may be over, says analyst

New York, Jan 11 : After a strong 20 percent run-up in consumer discretionary stocks this year, one analyst is predicting a more challenging 2013.

"We've had a great three-year run in consumer discretionary in terms of both sales growth and profitability gains," said R.J. Hottovy, an analyst with Morningstar. "So we think there's a pullback in store for 2013."

He also said consumers could continue to put off discretionary purchases particularly if tax rates go up and paychecks shrink in January.

Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group said consumer confidence will be important for retailers next year. "We need stability and some decisive actions to get the consumer comfortable again," she told CNBC.

In this more uncertain environment, Hottovy likes low-price retailers Amazon.com (AMZN) and Costco. (COST) He is also recommending late-stage cyclicals - like Home Depot (HD) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM) - that may do well as the housing market continues to recover.

Telsey said retailers with the right product, pricing and that can expand their brand should be standouts in 2013.

She pointed to Nordstrom (JWN), Urban Outfitters (URBN) and Michael Kors (KORS). Nordstrom continues to expand its The Rack stores, while Urban Outfitters continues its turnaround. Michael Kors is more of a first-half story, Telsey said, as demand for accessories should remain strong.

Tiffany (TIF) is a turnaround story for the second half, Telsey said. "Tiffany is working on its product," she said. "Its silver business, which is a high-margin category, didn't have enough novelty or newness. Hopefully that's something it can fix for next year."

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Gold may be down but bulls aren't counting it out

Washington, Jan 11 : As investors collectively wring their hands over the outcome of the U.S. "fiscal cliff" negotiations, one asset in particular has emerged as one of the biggest losers: gold.

Both safe-haven and risk asset, the yellow metal had no shortage of fans up until very recently. Washington's efforts to rein in its budget deficit has forced gold's nearly 12-year rally to hit the craggy rocks.

If the current trend continues, gold will see a relatively meager 5.7-percent gain this year - its lowest return since 2008 and just a fraction of its nearly 30 percent yield in 2010. Gold traded around $1660 an ounce - well below the record high of $1920 reached in September 2011.

Some say the correction is largely due to uncertainty over the fiscal cliff, when tax increases and spending cuts kick in.

Despite the correction, gold bulls say key fundamental factors still argue in favor of gold resuming its uptrend next year,with government policy at the top of that list.

"Since 2008, gold has correlated the best with our national debt ceiling," said Edmund Moy, chief strategist of Morgan Gold and a former director of the U.S. Mint from 2006 to 2011. He expects bullion to make a new run next year.

"Whenever gold has been above or below the debt ceiling, it will normalize to wherever that debt ceiling is," he said, explaining why the correction had been so deep. "If Congress lifts that debt ceiling to $18 trillion, I see gold rising to $1800," he said.

Gold's safe-haven properties are also expected to reassert themselves after the fear of higher taxes abates and worries about global instability come back into focus.

"Gold prices have been an economic and political barometer for the well being not just of the economy, but of the world,"said George Gero, vice president of global futures at RBC Capital Markets told CNBC's "Street Signs" this week.

"There have been plenty of problems,and we're going to return back to basics after the fiscal cliff," he said. "Sometime after January, people are going to take a second look at the world and say 'you know what, I do need someplace to put my money'."

As a result, the outlook for gold is "still positive," Dominic Schnider, head of commodity research at UBS Wealth Management, told CNBC's "Squawk Box" earlier this week.

"All of the elements for higher precious metal prices are here. The Fed is continuing its stimulus, balance sheets are exploding around the world, and real interest rates are in negative territory."

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US-China relations will define global politics in 2013

New York, Jan 11 : The relationship between the world’s great economic powers — the U.S., Europe and China — will be in transition in 2013, and changing political leadership is a big reason why, says Daniel Franklin, editor of The Economist magazine’s “The World in 2013."

The relationship between China's new leader Xi Jinping and President Barack Obama “is absolutely the crucial one now for global politics,” Franklin tells The Daily Ticker.

Related: U.S. Refuses to Label China a 'Currency Manipulator' but All Countries Manipulate Their Currencies

Franklin says both men need to keep U.S.-China trade flowing. China is the second largest trading partner of the U.S. Last year $503 billion worth of goods were exchanged between the two countries. 80% of those items were U.S. imports from China.

Franklin says both countries also need to work on resolving disputes between China and other countries over ownership of islands in the South China Sea. Many of those countries, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines, are allies of the U.S.

“This is something that has to be handled, adjusted to, and it will be awkward, no doubt about it," says Franklin.

The European Union is the largest trading partner of the U.S. and is another region in political transition. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, will be holding an election for chancellor next year. Franklin expects Angela Merkel, head of the Christian Democratic Union, to be re-elected but says she will likely head a “grand coalition” with the opposition Social Democrats.

In Italy, Mario Monti, who’s worked closely with Merkel, has announced he’ll be stepping down after a little over a year in office. Monti is credited with adopting economic reforms that brought the EU’s fourth largest economy back from the brink. But Monti says he’s lost the support he needs to govern.

France, the second biggest economy in the EU, faces the challenge of reviving an economy that's been running big deficits for years. President Francois Hollande "has big problems…in getting the country’s finances on a very sound footings,” says Franklin.

Beyond China and Europe, the Mideast poses another challenge for the global economy, says Franklin. “I’m afraid the outlook for Syria does not look good for the year ahead,” says Franklin.

Related: For Markets, Mideast is a Much Bigger Worry Than Europe: Jim Rickards

Adding to the uncertainty is the situation with Iran—whether Israel will attack and whether Iran will develop nuclear weapons. The preference is for “sanctions on Iran to bite hard enough that there’s a change of course,” says Franklin. But if that doesn’t happen and there’s a military confrontation, the price of oil will soar -- affecting every nation in the world, Franklin warns.

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Facebook’s mobile strategy in 2013

London, Jan 11 : Shortly after its historic IPO in May, Facebook (FB) stock lost half of its value as investors became increasingly anxious about the social network’s ability to make money from mobile advertising.

The stock has recovered some ground in recent weeks because CEO and co-founder Mark Zuckerberg has publicly addressed these concerns, according to David Kirkpatrick, author of The Facebook Effect.

“People just needed to be convinced that Zuckerberg realized that mobile was a big deal,” Kirkpatrick says in an interview with The Daily Ticker. “He has made that extremely clear. They are explicitly putting mobile at the top of the list in everything that they do.”

Effectively monetizing mobile has become the core challenge for all websites and Facebook’s struggles to earn revenue from mobile ads won’t go away in 2013, Kirkpatrick notes. But recent efforts by the company to target its 1 billion global users on smartphone devices and tablets could attract new advertisers. Facebook’s News Feed tool has the most potential for mobile ad displays, according to Kirkpatrick, and Facebook engineers are focusing on designing new apps and interfaces for mobile first, with PC versions to follow afterward. Facebook’s problems are not just how to increase mobile ads but also delivering and displaying them in a way that are not intrusive or offensive to users, Kirkpatrick says.

Mobile comprised 14% of Facebook’s $1.09 billion in total ad revenue in the third-quarter and the company made roughly $3 million a day from ads shown in its mobile News Feed.

According to eMarketer, Facebook could earn the highest amount of mobile display revenue than any other mobile publisher next year because of its ability to redistribute revenue from mobile to desktop. The social networking site is also on track to reach 18.4% of the U.S. mobile display advertising market in 2013.

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Google will face greater competition in 2013

New York, Jan 11: Google (GOOG) controls 67% of the search engine market in the U.S. and nearly 90% of market in the U.K.

The former underdog defied odds by trying to alter the shape of the Internet just 15 years ago. It is now the most visited Web site in the nation.

Daniel Franklin, editor of The Economist’s World in 2013, says when companies are at the top of their game they need to become extra vigilant.

"That’s when technology companies need to be worried because there’s always the next start-up that comes along and challenges their preeminence," he notes in the attached clip.

“Google could find that people are worried about privacy issues,” he adds. "They’re worried about the tracking issue.”

Google has been subject to investigations by various authorities based on its invasion of user privacy. France’s data-protection authority is currently investigating Google, and the U.S. Federal Trade Commission fined the company nearly $23 million for tracking Safari users. The European Union is drafting new data protection legislation and the U.K. is responding by introducing a communications bill that limits data-mining power.

New search companies are seeing an opening in the market and are quickly establishing relationships with Web users. Search engine Duck Duck Go promises not to track any of its users and doesn’t employ cookies. The company's search queries have more than tripled in the past year but its interface is eerily similar to Google’s; the site even has an “I’m feeling ducky” button.

Google will have to juggle an increasing number of investigations and regulations against its data policy in 2013 as well as monitor new search engines seeking to steal market share. But just how serious are these threats?

“I’m not saying Google will find itself vulnerable,” says Franklin, “but these things can change very fast so Google has to be concerned and they will be watching all these things very closely I imagine.”

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2013 Set for global grind but these economies could see an upside surprise

New York, Jan 11 : As 2012 closed, many have hopes for an improved economy in the new year.

Editors at The Economist are not so optimistic and believe the global economy in 2013 will be more of a "grind."

"There is a big gap, as there has been in many recent years, between the outlook in the emerging markets and the rich worlds," says Daniel Franklin, executive editor of The Economist and editor of The World in 2013. "The emerging markets, as a total, are going to be growing by 6%; the rich world by less than 2%."

Goldman Sachs is telling clients that the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South America) will make a comeback next year and be a prime investment opportunity.

Franklin also predicts a better year for China in 2013. "Those double-digit growth rates are a thing of the past but next year we will probably see 8% plus, which is reasonably healthy," says Franklin.

As for Europe, Franklin believes the region will remain in a recession and says Europe presents the biggest risk to the global economy, absent war or another natural disaster.

U.S. growth could actually be better than expected, Franklin notes, if there's no major shock from the eurozone. He forecasts 2.5% growth in the U.S. in 2013.

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Conflict aggravated miseries of women in IHK

Srinagar, Jan 11 : Taking the Indian civil society head-on for its alleged ‘discriminatory’ role, the Kashmir based civil society members and human rights activists said the armed conflict going on in held Jammu and Kashmir had escalated every kind of rights abuse against women including domestic violence.

Talking at a sensitization workshop ‘Domestic Violence in JK’ organized by the Human Rights Law Network (HRKN), the participants stressed on the effective implementation of the stringent laws in the state to stop the violence against women folk.
“In Delhi rape was committed by civilians, but in Kashmir hundreds of rapes have been committed by state actors. The problem actually is that masculinity of man is challenged by forces outside and in turn men try to exert pressure on women at their homes. It catalyzed the domestic violence,” said a woman activists and Chairperson Kashmir Centre for Social and Developmental Studies (KCSDS) Prof Hamida Nayeem.

Prof Hamida said the rapes had been going on since long in Kashmir but the Indian civil society groups and media turned a blind eye towards these crimes inflicted on women in held Kashmir.

“The way gang rape of Delhi girl triggered extensive media coverage and protests by activist in India, why not hundreds of such crimes in Kashmir been highlighted?” she questioned.

Prof Hamida said that people should revive or establish Mohalla Committees whenever any wrong doing happens against women. “We have lost faith in government institutions so there is need for social intervention to stop this,” she said.

Senior Journalist, Zahiruddin said the human rights violations emanating as a result of conflict in  the Valley have put many domestic issues on the backburner.

“We have to face the plenty of serious human rights abuses due to heavy militarization in Kashmir. So the issues like domestic violence have taken a back seat. The media organizations also had many pulls and pressures by which they could not highlight certain violations,” he said.

Earlier, the representatives of HRLN highlighted the pros and cons of the occupied Jammu and Kashmir Protection of Women from Domestic Violence Act 2010.

“The Act came about in response to decade-long pressure from various national and international organizations and activists. But two years later, despite noble intentions, it remains an unviable proposition,” said Shahnawaz, an Advocate in the District Court Pulwama.

He said that the little thinking had gone into understanding the context in which spousal abuse overwhelmingly occurs in held Kashmir. “The ground realities have been ignored and the implementation aspects left woolly and unprovided for.”

 The social activist, Qurat-ul-Ain said the law did not take into account the realities of the joint family system where female members of the family heap both physical and emotional aggression against a woman. “We need to change our patriarchal mindset to ensure continuance of the joint family ethos to cushion the woman against violence,” she said.

The day long workshop was attended by students, social activists, lawyers and journalists who deliberated on various aspects of the violence and suggested ways to put an end to the criminal mindset.

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Kangan villages reel under darkness

Kangan, Jan 11 : Many villages in this held Kashmir area are reeling under darkness from past many weeks as transformers in their areas have developed a technical snag.

Residents of Kijpora, Thune and Kudhar Wussan said a transformer in their area developed a technical snag and their areas have been reeling under darkness for past many weeks.

 “We are facing immense hardships in absence of electricity. Assurances of Power Development Department (PDD) to get the transformer repaired at the earliest proved to be a hoax as nothing has been done till date,” locals said.

 Residents of Konmmula-B said that PDD had failed to install a separate transformer in their area.

 “We have been demanding a transformer for the past four years. However, our pleas have fallen flat on deaf ears,” they added.      
 “The Kipora village is without electricity from past two weeks and nobody is listening to our pleas, our village transformer developed a snag but till date it has not been repaired,” said Muhammad Yusuf of Kijpora.

 Residents of Wusan said that transformer in their area developed a snag more than month ago.

 “PDD took it for repairing but till date it has not been reinstalled,” said Abdul Rashid of Wusan.

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Most consumers want predictive tests to learn if a disease is in their future

Islamabad, Jan 11: Consumers may place a high value on information to predict their future health, and may be willing to pay out of pocket to get it. In a national survey conducted by researchers at Tufts Medical Center, roughly 76% of people indicated that they would take a hypothetical predictive test to find out if they will later develop Alzheimer's disease, breast or prostate cancer, or arthritis.

On average, respondents were willing to pay $300 to $600, depending on the specific disease and the accuracy of the test.

Published online in the journal Health Economics, the study examined individuals' willingness to take and pay for hypothetical predictive laboratory tests in which there would be no direct treatment consequences. Overall, researchers found that in most situations, people were willing to pay for this 'value of knowing' -- even if the tests were not perfectly accurate.

Responses to the survey varied according to information provided about the disease risk profile and the accuracy of the hypothetical test. Of the 1463 respondents, willingness to be tested was greatest for prostate cancer (87% of respondents), followed by breast cancer (81%), arthritis (79%), and Alzheimer's disease (72%). Average willingness to pay varied from roughly $300 for an arthritis test to $600 for a prostate cancer test.

"This study brings us a step closer to understanding people's preferences and motivations for wanting a diagnostic test, even if it has no bearing on subsequent medical treatment," says lead author Peter J. Neumann, ScD, director of the Center for the Evaluation of Value and Risk in Health at the Institute for Clinical Research and Health Policy Studies at Tufts Medical Center. "While we have to proceed cautiously in this area, given that tests have costs and risks as well as benefits, our study suggests that many people value information -- both for its own sake and because they will adjust lifestyle and behavior choices accordingly."

The randomized, population-based internet survey presented participants with the option to take a hypothetical predictive blood test for one of the four diseases, understanding that the test would not be covered by insurance. Participants were asked how much they would be willing to pay for a test that could predict their disease. Some respondents were asked about a 'perfectly accurate' test, and others about an 'imperfect' one. They were also queried about their socioeconomic information, health status, risk attitudes and behaviors, and likely actions after receiving a positive test result.

The advancing field of in vitro diagnostics (IVDs) includes an increasing number of clinical laboratory tests that offer the hope of personalized screening to assess an individual's risk of developing certain diseases based on genetic markers found in blood or tissue samples.

According to Neumann, the growing use of predictive testing worldwide has resulted in increasing demands for evidence that demonstrates the value of such tests. Health technology assessment groups typically measure the utility of diagnostic tests in terms such as increased accuracy of test results, cost-effectiveness, or improved health outcomes for patients. But assessing the value of predictive testing may also require the use of new or different measures. In the Tufts Medical Center study, the researchers also found:

    * Income and disease type impact willingness to pay. The amount of money patients were willing to pay out of pocket for tests increased with income levels, and was significantly higher for breast and prostate cancer and Alzheimer's disease than for arthritis.
    * Gender, age, and education influence test participation. About 24% of individuals sampled elected not to take the predictive test. Generally, older respondents, women, those with a bachelor's or higher degree, and those with healthier behaviors were less inclined to undergo testing, even if it were free. Among those not wanting the test, major concerns expressed included the cost of the test, living with the knowledge of one's disease risk, and the lack of preventive measures.
    * Test results may alter future behavior. When faced with positive test results, individuals indicated they would change certain aspects of their lives, such as spending more time with loved ones (51%), putting their finances in order (48%), or traveling more (31%).

"By taking into account all implications of these tests -- including the risks, costs, potential cost offsets, and the value they have outside of medical outcomes -- we can build better policies and make better decisions about coverage and reimbursement, so that we may more accurately reflect patient preferences and appropriate uses of societal resources," says Neumann.

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3 decades on, Health Department fails to upgrade Kupwara SDH

Srinagar, Jan 11: Inadequate staff and shortage of vital equipment is taking a toll on patient-care at the Kupwara Sub-District Hospital. The Health Department has failed to upgrade the health institute to enable it to cater to the ever-increasing rush of patients.

The hospital is facing shortage of doctors and paramedical staff while the administration is unmoved on the issue. “The hospital has only eight doctors including some borrowed ones from other health centers who visit the hospital on shift-basis once or twice a week. It affects the patient-care badly,” said a medico there.
 In absence of necessary staff, the hospital is completely run by ISM doctors, especially during night hours.

 The SDH caters to a population of over 4 lakh from Kupwara town and its adjoining areas like Hayhama, Halmatpora, Kalaroos, Lolab, Kralpora and Chowkibal. Besides, patients are also referred from remote areas like Tangdhar, Teetwal, Keran, Jummagund, Kamkadi and Machil.

 “It has been 33 years since Kupwara became a district but the sub-district hospital is yet to be upgraded. The hospital continues to be housed in the same building since its establishment while the patient rush has increased manifold,” locals said.

 The new 200-bed up-gradation project on a proposed land has also been grounded as the construction work has been put off. “It could not come up more than a plinth level since 2010,” the locals said.
 They said the state government’s indifference towards the hospital is causing a lot of problems to patients and attendants. Around 4000 patients visit the SDH on an average every month.

 The hospital is yet to establish a full-fledged neonatal care unit to decrease the risk factor of newborn babies.

 At a time when the Health Department is facing criticism over poor childcare in the Valley hospitals, pediatric health care is worst hit in the Kupwara SDH as it functions without any related infrastructure, sources said.

 “There are no emergency equipments including the ventilators in the Emergency ward. The testing lab is also running short of reagents which affects the patient-care badly. The people have to either burden their pockets for undergoing tests from private labs or forget about conducting them,” they said.

 The hospital also lacks backup generator and heating system. In winter season patients spend time under candle light, shivering in cold.

 Most of the posts of children specialists are also lying vacant in Langate, Zachaldara, Kralpora, Tanghdar, Kralgund, Sogam and Trehgam. This is despite the fact that the district has the second highest child population in held Kashmir.

 “Nearly 10 posts, including paramedical, nursing and class-IV, are vacant in the hospital and the present staff is unable to cater to the huge rush of patients,” sources said.

 They said the hospital does not have trained staff to run X-ray and Ultrasound machines and lab equipments.

 An official wishing anonymity said the health department has failed to create additional posts to look after the growing patient rush.

 As a result, most of the ailing children are referred to GB Pant and other hospitals of the Srinagar city.

 “If an ailing child is referred from Keran, Kamakdi or Teetwal to Srinagar, it takes him more than 10 hours to reach the city. And in such cases, chances of survival are very less. That is why there is need of child specialists in peripheral hospitals,” said the locals.

When contacted, the Director Health Services Kashmir, Dr Saleem-ur-Rehman said the up gradation plan for the hospital has already been drafted. “There are certain issues that are taking time to finalize the plan but let us hope the New Year comes as a ray of hope,” he said

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Antibiotic resistance is not just genetic

Islamabad, Jan 11 : Genetic resistance to antibiotics is not the only trick bacteria use to resist eradication- they also have a second defence strategy known as persistence that can kick in.

Researchers reporting in the Journal of Medical Microbiology have now demonstrated for the first time that interplay occurs between the two mechanisms to aid bacterial survival. The findings could lead to novel, effective approaches to treat multi-drug resistant (MDR) infections.

'Persister' bacterial cells are temporarily hyper-resistant to all antibiotics at once. They are able to survive (normally) lethal levels of antibiotics without being genetically resistant to the drug. These cells are a significant cause of treatment failure yet the mechanism behind the persistence phenomenon is still unclear.

Scientists from Centre of Microbial and Plant Genetics, at the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium found that the number of persister cells isolated from Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections decreases when the bacterial population shows genetic resistance to the antibiotic fosfomycin.

P. aeruginosa is an opportunistic human pathogen and a significant cause of hospital-acquired infections. It can cause fatal infections in people suffering from cystic fibrosis. The bacterium is notorious for its ability to develop resistance against commonly-used antibiotics and treatment failure is common.

Professor Jan Michiels who led the study explained that persister cells are a major contributor to treatment failure. "Persister cells are produced in low numbers, but nevertheless make it almost impossible to completely remove the bug from the patient. As a result, eradication of infections through antibiotic treatment usually takes a long time," he said. "Our work shows that antibiotic treatment may also influence the number of persisters formed."

Co-administration therapies are being developed to treat MDR infections, in which drugs targeting non-essential cellular functions are combined with antibiotics. Professor Michiels explained that targeting persistence is an attractive option. "Ideally both susceptible and persistent cells would be targeted in a single therapy, but firstly we need to understand more about the interplay between genetic resistance and persistence to avoid stimulating one or the other. Unravelling the mechanism behind bacterial persistence is really important to enable us to optimise treatments of chronic bacterial infections."

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Double doses of chicken pox vaccine most effective

Islamabad, Jan 11 : When vaccinating children against varicella (chicken pox), researchers at Yale School of Medicine have found, two doses are better than one. In fact, the odds of developing chicken pox were 95 percent lower in children who had received two doses of the vaccine compared with those who had received only one dose.

Published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases, the study was led by Eugene D. Shapiro, M.D., professor in the Department of Pediatrics at Yale and his colleagues at Yale and Columbia universities.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) began recommending a single dose of chicken pox vaccine for children ages 1 to 13 in 1995. The chicken pox rate fell drastically and studies showed that the effectiveness of one dose was 86 percent. But there was still a high rate of breakthrough illness in immunized children. The CDC changed the immunization policy for chicken pox in 2006, adding a second dose for children ages 4 to 6. In this study, Shapiro and his team showed that the effectiveness of two doses is 98.3 percent.

Past studies have suggested that two doses of varicella vaccine are linked to higher antibody levels than one dose, but this is the first study to assess the clinical effectiveness of two doses of the vaccine in the general population. In a survey of Connecticut children, Shapiro and his team discovered 71 cases of chicken pox in children ages 4 and older. None of these children had received two doses of vaccine; 66 (93 percent) had received one dose and five (7 percent) had received no vaccine.

"We weren't surprised to find that two doses of varicella vaccine are highly effective and are more likely to prevent varicella than a singe dose," said Shapiro. "The findings confirm that, at least in the short term, the policy of routinely administering two rather than one dose of varicella vaccine is sensible. Other countries that are routinely immunizing children with varicella vaccine may consider changing to a two-dose regimen."

Because it has only been four years since the CDC policy change, Shapiro also recommends that there be continued monitoring of the effectiveness of two doses to assure that its high degree of effectiveness is sustained.

Other authors on the study include Marietta Vazquez, M.D., Daina Esposito, Nancy Holabird, and James Dziura.


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